Lake Arrowhead sales are starting to rise (see charts below). Summer 2009 looks like the start of our recovery. Vacation homes are discretionary money. As consumer confidence turns up, so goes Arrowhead Woods. A mountain home is for fun, a getaway, family time, an alternate lifestyle. Consumer confidence has always been our bellwether, thus the key to this resort community re-birth. FORECLOSURES, A FACTOR, ARE NOT SHAPING THE MARKET; TOO FEW TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE. Home sales for six months of 2009 hit 119, four below the same time last year. In 2008 there were 40 foreclosures sold for the year. For six months in 2009 we have 27 sold foreclosures. Only 7 listings are bank properties of the 453 homes now for sale. This is not a distressed market. Our resort median price is 13% below last year including bank sales. We're pleased. Scroll down for the big picture of base building. 7/3/09.

LAKE ARROWHEAD WOODS & LAKEFRONT STATS:  30 DAYS BACK FROM JULY 1, 2009

SOLD 38 homes in past 30 days; 125 in 2009 and 259 sold in past 12 months. Upturn beginning! 2008 had 258 homes sold for the calender year.

LISTED 80 homes in past 30 days with 453 total listings in Arrowhead Woods. A year ago when homes for sale jumped to 501, prices started to fall.

PRICE REDUCTIONS made 102 homes more affordable in June. Sellers continue to respond to low sales. Some want out now.

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE FOR JUNE IS $330,000 including foreclosures; but an amazing $485,000 when bank sales are taken out. Last year June had a median of $380,000 with 34 sales. Month to month sales are too small for a quick pattern. Lake Arrowhead is beginning to feel "recovery".

On 7/2/09 our agents voted a 'GREAT BUY' DESIGNATION to two homes on tour; Cottage Grove at $269,000; Greenbriar at $$897,000 Congratulations to these homeowners. Call for guidance in separating the wheat from the chaff. CHEERS, Bob and Patsy 7/3/09

Lake Arrowhead Country Club; drop in to see the beauty and learn the services.

ARROWHEAD TRENDS      Lake Arrowhead Woods & Lakefronts        Market report and focus on Arrowhead best buys      800-987-9320          BobBailey@cbskyridge.com NEWS YOU CAN USE. Analysis and graphic illustrations to help you make your own judgment of our market. Written by Bob and Patsy Bailey; Broker and Agent serving in Lake Arrowhead real estate and community service since 1989   CAR License Bob 01040125 & Patsy 01231486

Bob & Patsy Bailey

    2009 YEAR TO DATE SOLD click for Arrowhead Woods details on all homes sold incl foreclosures.   2008 had 258 HOMES SOLD, all listed here.

 SUMMER  2009 IS TIME TO BUY:  SALES ARE TURNING. LOW SALES HELD MEDIAN BELOW $400,000 FOR 13 MONTHS.

NEWS LINKS: Are You Eligible for a Mortgage Modification?    Mortgage Insurers to  the Rescue?    Firmer Economy, Firmer Rates... Assuring Accurate Appraisals What's a Consumer to do?...  Median Price Up for Second Month in Row...  Home Price Declines Spread to Stable Markets...

On 6/18/09 we wrote: The contrast of California chaos and Lake Arrowhead tranquility is the reward of discretionary spending to own a second home, a vacation home. As buyers watch the slow turning of our local real estate economy and sellers watch the same slow turning, the stalemate is low sales. Yet sold prices are starting to rise for Arrowhead Woods homes. Foreclosures are bidding up with 2 and more offers. 

ARROWHEAD WOODS / LAKEFRONT STATS:  30 DAYS BACK FROM 6/17/09:

LISTED 79 in past 30 days with 449 total listings. Year ago total was 389 homes listed in Arrowhead Woods and lakefronts.

PRICE CHANGES in 91 active listings. Sellers are adjusting to find their right price in their comfort zone for this market.

SOLD 17 homes in past 30 days; 251 sold in past 12 months. In 2008 the total was 258 homes sold in Arrowhead Woods.

MEDIAN SOLD PRICE $371,500 in past 30 days; Year ago 30 day median was $380,000. This includes foreclosures and short sales. Not bad!

It may feel like watching paint dry, but the strength of our resort home economy is no panic, no must sell, no must buy, and a lot of common sense about home values. As downhill prices rose to stratospheric peaks and gone to hell price drops, we chug along, having fun, waiting (not always patiently) and watching. The reward is in the numbers shown here. This week agents voted a GREAT BUY designation to five homes on tour; Bern Rd at $285,000, West Shore at $785,000, Eagles Nest Ct at $699,000, Pioneer Rd  $288,000 and Oakmont Dr at $262,000. Congratulations. CHEERS, Bob and Patsy 6/18/09

On 6/12/9 we wrote: Arrowhead vacation home shoppers, Good news and not so good news. First the good news. Jumbo rates are becoming a bargain. You can purchase a home calling for a mortgage above $417,000 to $1 million plus with a 6.25% rate. The monthly payment is $6.16 per $1,000 of loan amount. That is a terrific rate. On the other hand Lake Arrowhead owners and home shoppers are realizing that  conforming loan rates - below $417,000 loan amount - are rising; now about 5.75%. Keep tuned for the latest and most accurate news. The truth, whole truth and nothing but the truth. Cheers, Bob & Patsy

McLean, VA – Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.59 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 11, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 5.29 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.32 percent. The last time the 30-year FRM was higher was the week ending November 26, 2008, when it averaged 5.97 percent. More...BOND YEILDS PUSH RATES UP...

On 6/8/9 we wrote: The media is changing its' tune. For the second week Lake Arrowhead homes continue to inch up. News Headlines in the past week are 'Homes sales rise', 'Index suggests home sales are on the increase', 'Pending sales of homes up', 'Refinancing boom aids lenders', 'Mortgage rates rise above 5%', 'L.A. home prices below norms'. The last few headlines suggest lender confidence and sellers will be encouraged to nail down a pricing floor. Cheers, Bob & Patsy

On 6/4/9 we wrote: ARROWHEAD WOODS IS TURNING THE CORNER with a surge of sales above $500,000. 20 of the 55 homes under contract now are over half a million, topping out near $3 million. Foreclosures are  getting multiple offers driving up the bottom.  In 1992, the Arrowhead recession began with highest ever sales of high end homes. In 1997, the recession ended with high end sales leading the way again. In 2004 high end sales started climbing almost a year before the peak. In recent weeks high end home sales shot up. A bellwether, Arrowhead Woods homes and Lakefront homes of the affluent lead the market turn. It is happening now. When the top half of the Lake Arrowhead market shoots up, historically it marks a mountain market shift. A few weeks is hardly a certainty, but market watchers as we (Bob and Patsy) have always been, offer this alert for bargain hunters. Interest rates are inching up, there are some great prices now, the stock market is perking... Even economist are falling over one another to call a turn. Does that mean everything listed in the 'Woods' is a steal / deal? NO WAY. Somewhere near 20% are. Smart shoppers will find them, and the best sell in days not weeks, definitely not months. Airline prices, cars, stocks, houses, you snooze, you loose. Call, we know the wheat from the chaff. CHEERS, Bob & Patsy.

On 5/31/09 we said  Arrowhead Woods has 429 listings + 6 bank offerings. More home shoppers, cautious, lots of questions.

Quick Stats: 66 sales in Woods, YTD. 18 bank sales in Woods, Total 88 in 2009. 89 same time in 2008.
 
The phones are ringing with lots of questions about finding a deal. Foreclosures are few in number in Arrowhead Woods. The second home market in this community is not immune but the pickings are few. However, owners are still trying to be competitive, with more than a dozen weekly price reductions. To make a rough guess, there are about 15% of the homes currently listed that qualify for a real deal; great prices. The public can't see much because they come on the market, get an offer and go into escrow with one to three weeks. In the last six months, not the highest activity time of the year, 20% of the homes listed sold in 20 days or less. As often as I write, "the best sell first", folks delay and miss their chosen home. More and more buyer are calling us with their target specs and price to set up an AUTO-SEARCH. We set up a program to get the daily release of new listings or price reductions that fit their goal. Call. Don't miss the brass ring. It's free and no pressure. CHEERS, Bob 5/31/09

On 5/16/09  HOME SHOPPERS ARE EXCITED.  Arrowhead Woods; 418 homes for sale. 8 are foreclosures. Sellers anxious.

Home buyer can't quite understand how prices stabilized on the mountain and why we didn't crash like so many other areas. Sellers refused to hack their asking price in 2008. Prices came down but not a crash. Many sellers understood the market and kept shaving the price until a sale came along. In their view, they weren't going to give it away and could afford to wait for a 'fair' price. The number of homes sold was the lowest ever, with only 258 sales in Arrowhead Woods in 2008. Many want-a-be home sellers never sold. They also said, I can afford to wait. Buyers reacted by sitting on their hands waiting for a real steal. 2008 WAS A DISAPPOINTMENT TO EVERYONE EXCEPT the folks who owned a home in Lake Arrowhead. Scan down this web site to see the pleasure of home values not crashing except, sadly foreclosures. Foreclosures were few so prices didn't tumble in reaction. Prices did go down - only half as much as most areas. In the long run buyers and sellers won. Price stability in Lake Arrowhead is a reward as every buyer one day is a seller.             

CHOICES. Home sellers don't think alike. Perceptions of value are as wide ranging as human nature. In Lake Arrowhead there are no tract homes. Every home is different from the neighbor. Roads wind around. Terrain rises or gets steep. It is difficult to learn the pricing structure when closely comparable homes are blocks and miles apart. Ready to see 'em all? Comparison shopping for a vacation home is fun but avoid fatigue with a careful profile of your basic home requirements, check the internet frequently, get a relationship with a talented Realtor and keep in frequent contact. Instead of 418 homes, you might target 20, max 40 or so. Some wil be drive-bys. If this is the market bottom, the best will sell first; they always do. Avoid the terrible words "I wish I'd bought in 2009".  CHEERS, Bob 5/16/09

On 5/1/2009 we wrote     LAKE ARROWHEAD COMBACK GATHERS STEAM; 414 HOMES FOR SALE.


Arrowhead Woods vacation owners sat out 2008; only 258 homes sold. Realistic, ready to deal in 2009

In 2008, vacation home sellers flexed their affluent muscles by saying "no" to low ball offers. It was a mantra "I won't give it away. We'll have fun for another year, wait, and see what happens". So Arrowhead Woods set a record! Sales in 2008 dropped to 258 closings, the lowest in two decades. The drumbeat of foreclosures, short sales and new construction price crashes nationwide is reshaping our market. No panic. Two thirds of Arrowhead Woods homes are getaways, vacation homes for Southern California's financially comfortable. Owning two or more homes, more owners are saying it's time to move on. May 2009 has 414 homes listed.                      


In 2004, 799 homes sold, the highest sales year ever. The difference between the asking price and the final sale price was a 2% price reduction. In 2008, Arrowhead Woods sales were off 66% from the 2004 peak yet the 2008 asking price vs final sale price was a 5% discount. Tough bargaining! After a slow, snowy 2009 winter, seller are fixing and painting and shining up their mountain homes with lower asking prices. But still no giveaway. In 2009 the ask / sell spread is 5%. The good news is if you decide to own a Lake Arrowhead home, Arrowhead owners have proven that stable prices may not rise to the moon, but values won't go to H...!   CHEERS, Bob 5/7/9

ARROWHEAD TRENDS, SPRING 2009. A report on everything happening to home values in Arrowhead Woods, v  Spring Issue deals with the impact of foreclosures on the Arrowhead Woods market. v  What has happened to prices from 2000 to 2008. A surprise from this  less volatile vacation community. v  The change in value of all homes sold in the past 8 years, based on the age of the home. v  What is likely to happen in the next few years; a cautious forecast of price trends to 2013. Any questions about the report and analysis shown below, call Bob at 800- 987-9320. CHEERS.

                                                                 Click page for full screen size        

Lake Arrowhead sales inching upward ... and we are not alone. In support of our experience on the mountain, Celia Chen of Moody's Economy.com stated "Recent housing data continue to tantalize with hopes that the housing correction is at bottom, welcome news for beleaguered consumers. Low mortgage rates and high affordability are helping home sales to bump along the bottom. Residential construction appears to be at a trough, and house prices—at least by some measures—are firming. Foreclosures remain a weight on the housing market's outlook, however. Mortgage credit quality continues to worsen and notwithstanding foreclosure moratoriums that were put in place at the end of last year, foreclosures are still escalating...."    For a closer view of 2009 prices in  Arrowhead Woods, scroll down.CHEERS, Bob 5/1/2009

Loan Modifications may be revised.  The Administration says about half of the seriously delinquent borrowers have a second mortgage. Lenders of 2^nd mortgages, who include pension funds, insurance companies and hedge funds say that paying the first mortgage without touching the second violates their rights, because second mortgages are supposed to be repaid too. Treasury officials say “By bringing the first and second lien together, AS ONE MORTGAGE, lenders can reduce monthly payments for borrowers and make it more  likely the homeowner can stay in their homes”. More than 75% of mortgage holders have signed a contract to participate in this new first-mortgage (combined first and second). It could help up to 1.5 million homeowners.  CHEERS, Bob 4/30/09

PRICE TRENDS to MAY 2009. Huge gap in asking price vs sold prices. Buyers are price focused.  Sellers try to be firm.

FRIDAY 4/17/09. LAKE ARROWHEAD... BANKS CHANGE THE RULES. BANK OWNED PROPERTY WILL NO LONGER BE IDENTIFIED IN ANY LISTINGS, ADVERTISING, COPY DESCRIPTIONS... ZERO... NO IDENTITY ANYWHERE, TO PROTECT THE BANKS REAL ESTATE. BANK OWNED HOMES HAVE EXPERIENCE BREAK-INS, STEALING COPPER PLUMBING, FIXTURES, APPLIANCES, WHOLESALE STRIPPING - THEFT. BANK OWNED HOMES ARE BEING VANDILIZED. THE BANKS ARE DETERMINED TO STOP IT OR MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT.

When you are looking for foreclosed property, the intent of these new regulations is to keep anyone from publishing the name of the owner of the home, lenders in particular. At this time, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo are the three to whom this applies. Speculation is that other lenders will follow. The day to day impact for home shoppers is to be unable to get a list of bank owned property. A second likely consequence is that it could build a floor under prices as home shoppers are not able to look only at foreclosures. They will be intermixed with Mr. and Mrs. Smith's and their neighborhood homes.

After holding back on filing foreclosures at the Treasury request, lenders have been given authorization to resume the 'normal' foreclosure business. National news sources say the release will be huge. Foreclosures in Lake Arrowhead are modest compared to other communities. We will be watching closely.   KEEP IN TOUCH by sending us your Email address (and a friend) We'll send a weekly 'News Headline' for Lake Arrowhead.

LAKE ARROWHEAD IS BUZZING as the mood of the market changes.

Interest rates are now at 4.75%, a historical low. We are seeing more home shoppers in our Coldwell Banker office (60+ agents) than any time in the past           18 months. Sellers have waited a long time and anxious. Some have large equity or even paid off homes. The thinking is it may be time to sell, putting the home cash into higher yields. Waiting another year is a dreadful thought for folks ready to sell. Arrowhead prices are firming in all price brackets over $300,000.

Foreclosures, only 15% of all listings will continue to impact low end home prices.  A must see for Arrowhead home shoppers, they sell quickly. There were 40 foreclosures in 2008 of 258 sold.

IS THE ARROWHEAD ROLLER COASTER READY TO START THE CLICK, CLICK, CLICK UPWARD CLIMB? The basic issue is consumer confidence, beginning with a personal evaluation of where do I stand in the economic mix-master. Ninety two percent on the nation is employed. Most are very secure; others may also be comfortable financially but as Warren Buffett says "fear is dominating people's behavior". We feel the caution as folk seek to fulfill their dream but not overextend. Yet some homeowners are offering rock bottom prices, banks too, even as the stock market has a few extraordinary values. It is time for the strong of heart to take a look; real estate, stock market, cars, plasma TV ... If you want to buy at the bottom, you have to start shopping now or the brass ring may pass you by. The best go first!    3/15/09 Bob

JANUARY 2009 ARROWHEAD TRENDS PRINT REPORT. As the Lake Arrowhead market slowly turns, a careful study indicates some excellent buying opportunities and some stress for home shoppers focused on foreclosures; too few for their hopes. Arrowhead Trends, my print publication on the right summarizes 2008 and a cautious 2009 forecast. The 'Bubble' of 2004 to 2008 is challenging to buyers in that period - if - and only if - they must sell soon. We have illustrated changing home values from euphoria to crunch. There's an illustration of one home value changing over these years. If you have Explorer 6 or older the reading size can be adjusted; go to the top bar, click view & text size.